The Fall of the Syrian Government: The End of Assad and the Legacy of the Baath Party

Introduction
The new political structure known as the “Syrian Republic” emerged in 1932 under French mandate rule, which had been established in 1918. France violently and forcibly separated Syria’s geography from its historic and cultural domain, “Bilad al-Sham” (Greater Syria). Historically, Bilad al-Sham, with Damascus as its capital, served as the center of the vast Umayyad Empire, which ruled the region for 90 years.
While Syrian political elites at the beginning of the 20th century aspired to make their country the hub of the Arab nationalist movement, Syria instead became a focal point of international competition between the West and the Soviet Union and a center of regional rivalry between Iraq and Egypt. In 1970, Hafez al-Assad staged an intra-party coup and became Syria’s president in 1971. His rise to power marked the beginning of an authoritarian regime, epitomized by the massacre of civilians in Hama in February 1982.

How Did Bashar al-Assad Rise to Power?
Bashar al-Assad came to power in 2000 following the death of his father, Hafez al- Assad. Initially, he promoted the slogan of the “Damascus Spring,” pledging reforms to support democracy, human rights, and freedom of expression. However, by February 2001, citing foreign policy challenges, he abandoned his promises of political reform.
In October 2005, a group of Syrian opposition figures signed the “Damascus Declaration,” calling for democracy and political reforms. The regime responded by imprisoning some of the signatories and forcing others into exile. The Arab Spring of 2011 sparked protests and demonstrations, beginning in the city of Daraa and spreading to other parts of Syria. The Assad regime labeled the protesters as terrorists and brutally repressed them, leading to a devastating civil war. This conflict resulted in over 500,000 deaths and displaced half of Syria’s 23 million population.
During the 13-year war, Assad’s regime committed widespread human rights violations, including torture, extrajudicial executions, and the use of chemical weapons against civilians. To maintain his grip on power, Assad sought support from Iran and Russia, turning Syria into a battleground for regional and international rivalries. Neighboring countries, particularly Iran and Turkiye, and global powers, including Russia and the West, vied for influence in Syria’s conflict.

The End of 54 Years of Assad Rule
The prolonged stagnation of domestic conditions, failure to implement political reforms, the regime’s monopolization of power, and its refusal to engage in dialogue with opposition forces controlling 35% of Syrian territory unified the opposition against Assad. Despite their ideological differences, the opposition forces intensified their efforts to topple the regime.
On November 27, following a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, clashes between Assad’s forces and armed opposition groups escalated. From November 30 to December 7, opposition forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched an operation called “Operation Deter the Enemies”. They captured key provinces and ultimately seized Damascus, bringing Assad’s rule to an end. While the regime’s collapse resulted from swift attacks by opposition forces, it also stemmed from broader military and political dynamics in the region, including the weakening of Iran and Hezbollah, which could no longer support Assad effectively.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and Its Allied Forces
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the most prominent group involved in this offensive, is a takfiri armed group that was formed in January 2017 as a result of the merger of several factions. This group was previously known as Jabhat al-Nusra, which was affiliated with al-Qaeda in Syria but officially split from it in July 2016. The leader of HTS is Ahmad al-Shara, commonly known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, who had earlier served as the commander of Jabhat al-Nusra. Al-Jolani has played a key role in directing the group and maintaining its power against internal and external challenges. HTS has formed a coalition with the National Liberation Front, Harakat Ahrar al-Sham, and Jaish al-Izza to overthrow Bashar al-Assad.

Hopes for Ideological Transformation of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
There are significant doubts surrounding the ideological transformation of this group, formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra. The dispute between HTS and al-Qaeda was rooted in issues of influence and control rather than a shift in ideology. This is evident from
the fact that al-Qaeda congratulated HTS on its advances in three Syrian provinces. As a result, many countries believe that rebranding Jabhat al-Nusra as HTS does not reflect any substantial change in its political or ideological outlook.
In recent months, these armed groups have also fought against one another, with anyone opposing them being declared an apostate (takfir). For this reason, it seems highly unlikely that Ahmad al-Shara (Abu Mohammad al-Jolani) can emerge as a political and social reformer capable of establishing a governance system and credible institutions that meet Syria’s expectations.

Reasons for Syria’s Collapse
According to Fawaz A. Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, several factors contributed to Syria’s collapse:
• The weakening of state capacity, which exacerbated Syria’s economic and social instability.
• Israeli attacks on Syria’s military and critical infrastructure.
• Russia’s preoccupation with the war in Ukraine, limits its effective presence in Syria.
• Long-term sieges, widespread corruption, and inadequate military training within
the Syrian army eroded its morale and capacity to fight.

What is Turkiye Seeking in Syria?
Turkiye is recognized as a powerful regional state. With the rise of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) to power in Turkiye and its policy of “zero problems with neighbors,” Ahmed Dawood Uglo played a prominent role in fostering relations, promoting rapprochement, mutual understanding, and regional convergence between Turkiye and Syria.
However, with the outbreak of civil protests by Syrian civic forces in various cities met with suppression by Bashar al-Assad relations between the two countries entered a new phase of fundamental disputes. The primary disagreement revolved around Assad’s refusal to initiate dialogue with the opposition. Over 13 years, this divergence has intensified, leading to heightened tensions between the two nations.

Turkiye’s Role and Objectives in Syria
As a regional power, Turkiye pursued several strategic goals in Syria:
• Facilitating the return of three million Syrian refugees.
• Combating Kurdish groups opposed to Turkiye, as well as ISIS.
• - Securing its borders and preventing the smuggling of weapons and drugs.
• - Supporting a political transition in Syria, centered around Turkiye-aligned factions.
• - Weakening Iran’s influence and its proxies, including Hezbollah.
• - Promoting a moderate narrative among Syria’s ruling factions to align with Arab
and Western interests.

Israel’s Position on the Syrian Conflict
Assad’s fall significantly weakened Iranian influence in Syria, a favorable outcome for Israel. However, the rise of Islamist factions controlling Syria introduced new uncertainties. While these groups have refrained from attacking Israel, concerns persist in both Israel and the U.S. about their potential to adopt more aggressive stances aligned with broader Arab and Islamic causes.
Some Israeli analysts argued that Assad’s continued rule was preferable to the empowerment of Islamist groups. Despite Assad’s downfall marking a new phase for Syria, unresolved challenges and an uncertain future could lead to unforeseen complications.

What were the consequences of Bashar al-Assad's fall for Iran?
While the events unfolded in Syria, their implications extended beyond Assad’s regime, deeply impacting Iran’s regional strategy. For over two decades, Iran pursued its “Shia Crescent” doctrine and built a “Resistance Axis,” including Hezbollah, post-Saddam Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen, with Syria as a key link.
The Syrian uprising in 2011 disrupted Iran’s strategy, despite its ability to sustain Assad for 13 years. However, this came at the cost of sharing influence with Russia, Turkiye, and the U.S. Assad’s fall ultimately ousted Iran from Syria’s political equation, with Turkiye and Israel filling the vacuum. By losing its foothold in Syria, Iran also lost its land corridor to Lebanon and Palestine, as well as its proximity to Israel through the Golan Heights.

Conclusion
1. The opposition’s victory after 13 years of conflict marks a strategic transformation in the Arab world and the beginning of a new chapter in Syria’s political history.
2. The Arab Spring contrary to some beliefs remains an enduring revolutionary wave that has finally borne fruit in Syria and could continue in the future.
3. The dominance of Islamist factions in post-Assad Syria presents a significant challenge to the country’s future.
4. Adherence to Western values, establishing a modern constitution, a timeline for power transition, and a system that guarantees civil, political, and minority rights while shaping foreign relations free of ideological extremism are the aspirations of Syrians.
5. Syria’s future role in supporting Palestine as part of the “Resistance Axis” remains an open question.
6. Reference to UN Resolution 2254 as a framework for political solutions and inclusive governance is critical.
7. U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have expanded their control and transitioned from military achievements to sustained political influence. However, their leaders continue to demand autonomy.
8. Security remains the greatest challenge, especially given the conflicting interests of Syria’s neighbors.