Why Iran Wants Reconciliation in Afghanistan?

Since the victory of the Iranian Revolution in 1979, Iran has pursued an ambitious foreign policy aimed at exporting its revolutionary ideology across the region. One of the earliest and most successful moves in this strategy was Iran’s alliance with the Hafez al-Assad regime in Syria, which provided Tehran with a strategic foothold in the Arab world. This partnership, grounded in ideological and geopolitical interests, enabled Iran to extend its influence beyond its borders.
One of the key manifestations of this expansionist policy was Iran’s role in the formation of Hezbollah in Lebanon in 1982. By supporting this Shiite militant group, Iran managed to shift the power balance in Lebanon in its favor while simultaneously creating a formidable force to fight against Israeli invasion of Lebanon.
However, recent regional developments have significantly undermined Iran’s geopolitical standing. The devastating 14 years of war in Syria, which initially seemed to be an opportunity for Iran to consolidate its influence, eventually resulted in regime change that led to losing its long-time ally, Bashar al-Assad. The fateful war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2024, where Hezbollah lost almost all its high-ranking leaders, also exposed vulnerabilities in Iran’s regional strategy, as did the continued political instability in Iraq and the conflict in Yemen. For decades, Iran leveraged its presence in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and later Yemen to establish what has been termed the “golden arc” of influence, stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea.
After Iran lost its regional allies and proxy forces in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon, the country's interest in increasing its influence in Afghanistan, as a neighboring country, has grown significantly. The presence of Afghanistan refugees in Iran, the Shia population in Afghanistan, and Afghanistan's economic and trade dependency on Iran have made it easier for Iran to extend its influence in Afghanistan


Afghanistan’s Importance in Iran’s New Strategic Calculations

In this shifting regional landscape, Iran sees Afghanistan as a critical area where it can reassert its influence. Historically, Iran has maintained strong ties with various Afghanistan factions, including the Shiite Hazara community, Tajik political figures, and even the Taliban. During the 1990s, Iran was a key backer of the Northern Alliance, which fought against the Taliban. The alliance was led by Ahmad Shah Massoud, a Tajik commander who played a crucial role in resisting Taliban rule. Iran provided financial and military support to his forces, seeing the Northern Alliance as a counterbalance to the Taliban’s hardline Sunni ideology. Despite its past opposition to the Taliban, Iran has maintained pragmatic engagements with the group in recent years. This has included informal communication channels and economic cooperation. Even as Iran continues to engage with exiled Afghanistan opposition leaders—most recently in Ankara, Turkey—it has also sought to maintain informal ties with the Taliban.
Iran’s engagement in Afghanistan is driven by several strategic considerations. First and foremost, Afghanistan serves as a potential alternative sphere of influence at a time when Iran’s Middle Eastern strongholds are under strain. The fall of Kabul to the Taliban in 2021 created new opportunities and risks for Iran. While the Taliban’s hardline Sunni ideology remains a source of concern, Tehran recognizes that fostering a working relationship with the Taliban is preferable in Tehran’s interests, at least for the time being.

Iran’s Security Concerns and the Need for Stability

Beyond regional power calculations, Iran’s engagement in Afghanistan is also rooted in its immediate national security concerns. The Taliban’s rise to power has led to increased instability, including internal divisions within the group. The high-ranking Taliban leaders are often at odds over governance strategies, with some favoring international engagement while others remain committed to strict ideological rule. These divisions have created a volatile political environment that could lead to internal conflict and resumption of another round of fratricidal civil war.
One of the key threats Iran seeks to mitigate is the growing expansion of ISIS-K, a Sunni extremist group that considers Shiites, including Iran’s ruling elite, as enemies. ISIS-K has often been carrying out high-profile attacks in Afghanistan, posing direct threats to Iran’s interests and its allies. Thus, Iran’s mediation efforts can be seen as an attempt to prevent the country from becoming a breeding ground for anti-Shiite extremist groups that could jeopardize the security of its borders, spilling over into Iran.
Additionally, Iran is wary of the possibility of another military intervention in Afghanistan, whether by regional actors or international powers. A prolonged conflict or external intervention could further destabilize the region, threatening Iran’s border security and increasing refugee influx into Iran.

Challenges Facing Iran’s Reconciliation Efforts

• Iran’s strategic interest in fostering reconciliation, and the obstacles for it
While internal divisions are deteriorating among Taliban leaders over women’s rights, girls’ education and governance policies, there is consensus within the group against power-sharing with opposition figures. Although there are indications that some disgruntled Taliban leaders have either left Afghanistan or are reluctant to cooperate with their supreme leader in Kandahar, which makes the mediation efforts more challenging for Iran.
• The Presence of Foreign Terrorist Groups in Afghanistan
Afghanistan remains home to multiple foreign terrorist groups, among them ISIS-K, an ultra-Sunni militant group that views Iran as an enemy. The group could sabotage any reconciliation efforts led by Iran, by carrying out attacks against Iranian personnel, interests, and allies within Afghanistan.
• Regional Rivalries
One of the biggest challenges to Iran’s influence in Afghanistan is the role of Pakistan. For decades, Pakistan has viewed Afghanistan as its strategic depth and played a pivotal role in supporting the Taliban to realize its dreams. However, Pakistan’s relationship with the Taliban has recently grown increasingly complex. The presence of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, (TTP), a Pakistani militant group inside Afghanistan that has often carried out attacks inside Pakistan, has further strained relations between the two.
With a growing tension with the Taliban, and facing immense economic and security challenges, Islamabad is likely to cooperate with any possible US reengagement in Afghanistan in exchange for military and economic incentives, which could actively undermine any Iran-backed initiatives.

Conclusion

Iran’s engagement in Afghanistan reconciliation is a pragmatic response to its shifting regional fortunes. As it has lost in Syria and its influence is under great pressure in Lebanon, Yemen, Afghanistan presents an opportunity for Iran to regain some of its lost strategic leverage. By attempting to mediate between the Taliban and prominent opposition figures, Iran tries to engage Afghanistan in a way to preempt any plausible alternative initiative or military intervention by the Western powers, which it considers as a national security threat.
However, the road to reconciliation is fraught with challenges. The Taliban’s seemingly hardline position on power-sharing, the presence of multiple terrorist groups, and regional rivalries, pose significant obstacles to Iran’s efforts. Indeed, Iran’s strategic approach to securing lasting influence hinges on its ability to navigate the complexities of the Afghanistan conundrum.